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A crude-oil trader, for example, would follow OPEC Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries meetings for any signs of a cutback or increase in production quotas, weather reports affecting oil consumption, the weekly oil inventory report as well as the weekly natural gas storage figures.
This trader then waits for an A up or an A down to occur. In this case, the index moves above the OR and rises a further three points putting in an A up. The trader places a stop order and buys the index at the A up. A stop loss would be set below the low value of the OR B-exit so that if the market moved in the undesired direction for more than this amount once the trader is in the trade, he or she would get out - best to keep the money to trade another day.
If the trade continued in the desired direction for the day trader, he or she would exit the trade near the end of the day.
AC down occurs if the A up signal is generated, but then the index trades down below the opening range. Using the lower limit of the OR B exit , the trader would exit when this line is penetrated and reverse his or her position sell short when a C down was put in. AC down or C up moves are far rarer. They are interesting because the later in the day they occur, the more intense the move: the less time traders have to exit a trade on a reversal, the more urgent it becomes and hence the greater the volatility.
According to Fisher, this is one instance in which staying in a trade overnight might be a good idea, as markets often experience gaps at the open of the following day.
In figure 2, we see a chart showing five-minute bars, opening range, an A up and C down. The trade was entered when the equity traded at the A up, exited stopped out when it traded below the B exit at the bottom of the opening range. A C down trade was entered with a stop D exit in case the index closes above the upper limit of the opening range. C down or C up moves are far rarer. A day trader might use a five-minute period as his or her basis for trading, while a longer-term trader might use daily data.
For a longer perspective, Fisher describes the macro ACD. This still requires reference to intraday data to determine opening range and A up or down, etc. The difference is that now the longer-term trader keeps a tally of the score each day in a running total.
Fisher assigns daily values based on market action. If it puts in an A down and never closes above OR, he gives it a —2. A total is kept and each day the new daily value is added while the oldest score 30 days ago is removed. On a day in which the running tally is increasing, the longer-term trader would consider this bullish.
The more rapidly the value is increasing or decreasing, the more bullish or bearish the signal. A full discussion of this strategy is beyond the scope of this article, but suffice it to say that Fisher has found it to work very well in providing his traders with a macro look at the market in which they trade. Those interested in learning more are advised to obtain a copy of 'The Logical Trader' or go to Fisher's website.
He offers a subscription service to those who would like to get regular information on the values of A and C points on various equities and commodities, as well as details on how to best use his system.
Conclusion - Tip of the Iceberg The principles discussed here are just a glimpse of how the ACD system works, so before using it, make sure you do more reading and homework.
The system is also not a plug-and-play trading strategy that can be used on any equity. Those equities that work best for ACD are highly volatile, very liquid lots of daily trading volume , and subject to long trends - currencies tend to work very well with the ACD system. It is also important to note that it does not work very well on low volatility equities stuck in a trading range.
If you're looking for new and interesting trading ideas to pursue and you aren't afraid to do some work, the ACD system offers another way to look at markets and a method of taking advantage of the daily volatility and trends of stocks, commodities and currencies. Figure 2 - Chart showing five-minute bars In figure 2, we see a chart showing five-minute bars, opening range, an A up and C down.
The 'ACD Method' developed and refined by Mark Fisher after many years of successful trading, provides price points at which to buy and sell as determined by the opening range of virtually any stock or commodity. This comprehensive guide details a widely used system that is profitably implemented by many computer and floor traders at major New York exchanges.
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